Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.6  22.1  19.2  19.7  25.2  31.4  37.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  17.0  16.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 120.1 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  43.0  51.0  41.0  39.0  30.0   4.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  56.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.2%       12.7%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.9%        3.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        4.6%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.7%       17.7%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        5.9%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.3%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%        5.9%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 EP042024 240803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    129.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.6  22.1  19.2  19.7  25.2  31.4  37.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  48.0  49.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  56.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%