Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.0  19.1  17.1  12.0  12.7  16.2  23.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  12.0   7.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 111.5 113.6 105.5  89.3  69.2  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  34.0  53.0  62.0   4.0   4.0 -23.0 -29.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  52.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        7.9%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       11.4%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        4.0%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.0%        2.8%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.8%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 EP042024 240803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    130.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  23.0  19.1  17.1  12.0  12.7  16.2  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  46.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  60.0  56.0  52.0 VF VF  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%