Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.4  16.5  13.2  16.8  16.4  16.1  23.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  11.0   8.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 111.5 113.6 107.4  98.0  80.0  70.4  60.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0  16.0  -8.0 -14.0  25.0 -34.0 -31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  50.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.2%        3.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        9.3%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP042024 240804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    130.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  20.4  16.5  13.2  16.8  16.4  16.1  23.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  52.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  50.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%