Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042024 240804 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 19.7 15.4 14.4 16.8 18.3 19.8 22.1 N N F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 13.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.1 113.6 113.6 107.4 89.3 80.0 70.4 60.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 25.0 0.0 3.0 19.0 0.0 -19.0 46.0 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 52.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 8.7% 4.8% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 3.8% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 3.3% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 10.5% 5.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 70kt / 48h 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 1.8% 1.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 EP042024 240804 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 130.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.4 19.7 15.4 14.4 16.8 18.3 19.8 22.1 N N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 56.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 52.0 49.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%