Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  14.7  13.8  13.9  16.2  14.6  19.1  22.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        111.5 113.6 107.4  98.0  89.3  80.0  70.4  60.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  15.0  16.0  -4.0   9.0 -12.0 -15.0 -10.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  49.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 EP042024 240804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  14.7  13.8  13.9  16.2  14.6  19.1  22.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  49.0  45.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%