Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  15.7  14.8  16.0  16.4  15.3  19.9  27.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   5.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 107.4  98.0  98.0  80.0  70.4  70.4  70.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0   9.0 -22.0   0.0  -3.0   9.0   0.0 -19.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  56.0  47.0  38.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.2%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.30

 EP042024 240804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.