Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042024 240805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  14.1  15.8  18.4  13.4  20.7  22.3  31.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4  99.8  99.8  89.3  80.0  60.9  60.9  55.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   1.0  12.0  -7.0   1.0 -12.0 -10.0 -44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  48.0  42.0  32.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 EP042024 240805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.