Rapid Intensification Guidance EP042024 240805 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.7 14.0 17.4 15.4 21.3 27.5 30.7 30.7 F F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 99.8 89.3 80.0 70.4 62.0 54.7 54.7 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 22.0 16.0 3.0 -7.0 -3.0 -17.0 -17.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 52.0 46.0 41.0 41.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 7.0 9.0 9.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.6% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.72 EP042024 240805 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 129.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.