Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  16.2  20.8  24.5  21.0  29.6  29.6  29.6  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  40.0  39.0  36.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 132.0 132.0 134.3 132.0 132.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  58.0 105.0 138.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   9.0  10.0   0.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0  N  N  U  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.3%       29.3%       20.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       13.3%        9.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       12.6%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       12.6%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.1%       38.9%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.8%        8.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.7%       21.4%       21.6%
 70kt / 48h       11.2%       16.1%       13.6%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       33.3%       31.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.24

 EP052024 240804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  16.2  20.8  24.5  21.0  29.6  29.6  29.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  80.0  79.0  81.0  82.0  82.0  82.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   9.0  10.0   0.0 -17.0 -17.0 -17.0  N  N  F  F  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%