Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  22.7  22.9  22.9  29.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  40.0  38.0  31.0  40.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 134.3 134.3 132.0 120.7 120.7 120.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0 120.0 125.0  96.0 150.0 127.0 127.0 127.0  N  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  82.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   0.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       17.7%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        6.7%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        6.1%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        6.1%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       19.5%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       13.9%       10.9%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        6.2%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       31.9%       19.6%       25.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP052024 240805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  22.7  22.9  22.9  29.4  24.4  24.4  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  82.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   9.0   7.0   0.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%