Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.9  22.9  28.1  21.3  25.1  25.1  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  35.0  35.0  27.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 122.3 111.5 111.5 111.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 111.0  88.0  76.0 131.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   6.0   2.0  -5.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       23.0%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%        9.7%        7.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        9.4%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        9.4%        5.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       25.6%       17.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       11.3%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        7.9%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       15.7%       14.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.28

 EP052024 240805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.9  22.9  28.1  21.3  25.1  25.1  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   6.0   2.0  -5.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%