Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.0  27.9  27.7  24.1  26.6  22.0  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  28.0  29.0  28.0  24.0  18.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 115.1  94.8  78.0  62.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   112.0 121.0  97.0  77.0 117.0  48.0 -12.0 -10.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -8.0 -11.0   0.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.8%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       21.5%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%        8.5%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        8.5%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.1%        8.5%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%       20.1%       14.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.0%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        6.3%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        4.1%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        4.2%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 EP052024 240805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.0  27.9  27.7  24.1  26.6  22.0  22.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  83.0  78.0  76.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -8.0 -11.0   0.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%