Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  28.3  28.7  24.6  18.9  17.5  16.0  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  24.0  21.0  20.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 124.3 122.0 119.6 106.5  81.1  64.2  45.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   137.0 104.0  91.0  88.0  54.0  20.0  24.0  15.0 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.9%       16.3%       12.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        6.0%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        6.0%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        6.0%        3.9%
 45kt / 36h        6.3%       15.1%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        4.4%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        3.1%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.2%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 EP052024 240805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    114.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  28.3  28.7  24.6  18.9  17.5  16.0  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  81.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  65.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0  -9.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%