Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  29.6  26.6  26.2  28.4  22.9  22.3  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  32.0  34.0  29.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 117.0 117.0 112.3  84.4  64.4  49.8  40.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0  75.0  78.0 118.0  67.0  12.0   8.0  44.0  F  N  N  F  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -5.0  -7.0 -16.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  F  F VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        2.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       18.8%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        7.4%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        7.4%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        7.4%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       10.5%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.4%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 EP052024 240806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    114.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  29.6  26.6  26.2  28.4  22.9  22.3  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0  -5.0  -7.0 -16.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  U  U VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%