Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  28.2  26.3  27.2  31.4  23.7  17.7  18.3  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  20.0  24.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 104.6 100.1  91.5  66.1  51.7  37.7  30.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  95.0  91.0 103.0  28.0   9.0 -11.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -7.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.3%        5.3%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       25.1%       22.8%
 30kt / 24h       10.9%       12.9%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.4%       12.9%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.4%       12.9%       11.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       10.4%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP052024 240806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  28.2  26.3  27.2  31.4  23.7  17.7  18.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  69.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -2.0  -5.0 -10.0  -7.0  -6.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%