Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  22.7  27.5  35.1  29.9  20.1  26.1  21.7  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  22.0  17.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 104.6  97.9  79.8  63.0  39.8  30.9  29.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0  99.0  84.0  76.0  39.0 -24.0  63.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N VU  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0 -12.0  -9.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.8%       10.9%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       25.7%       33.4%       29.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.7%       23.1%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h       10.9%       23.1%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%       20.5%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%       16.0%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.2%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP052024 240806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  22.7  27.5  35.1  29.9  20.1  26.1  21.7  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  74.0  74.0  69.0  65.0  60.0  56.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -9.0 -12.0 -12.0  -9.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%