Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  25.9  33.9  35.6  28.5  30.8  26.3  25.9  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  20.0  19.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6  97.9  87.4  79.8  51.7  39.8  30.0  24.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0 103.0  83.0  28.0 -13.0  33.0  28.0   6.0  F  F  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -12.0 -14.0 -14.0 -10.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        4.0%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       11.4%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        5.8%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.8%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.2%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP052024 240806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    115.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  25.9  33.9  35.6  28.5  30.8  26.3  25.9  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  74.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -12.0 -14.0 -14.0 -10.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%