Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240807 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.9 35.5 34.5 25.6 23.5 19.1 20.5 18.4 N U U N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 16.0 9.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.7 83.5 72.7 58.6 43.2 31.8 24.2 21.9 N N U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 50.0 29.0 -17.0 -8.0 24.0 13.0 -13.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 67.0 61.0 61.0 55.0 N F N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -17.0 -6.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 VF VF F N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.5% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.0% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP052024 240807 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.10 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.