Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240807 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 116.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.9 28.6 22.2 18.5 21.5 18.2 20.4 14.2 N N N N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.5 72.7 58.6 45.5 33.7 25.0 24.2 22.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 15.0 -21.0 -7.0 47.0 24.0 -17.0 -4.0 U U VU U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 72.0 69.0 64.0 64.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -4.0 0.0 -4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 F F N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.6% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.40 EP052024 240807 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 116.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.