Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  21.4  17.7  19.6  18.3  20.1  15.6  14.4  N  N  F  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  53.6  48.0  38.2  26.8  24.1  20.8  17.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  17.0 -40.0  25.0  46.0  41.0 -20.0  12.0  U  U VU  U  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        1.5%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.86

 EP052024 240807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    116.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.