Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240807 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 24.4 21.5 20.0 19.4 18.6 15.3 19.3 N N N N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.6 45.5 43.2 33.7 25.0 24.2 22.6 23.4 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 2.0 23.0 37.0 30.0 -7.0 9.0 -5.0 U U U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 65.0 68.0 64.0 59.0 58.0 54.0 53.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -8.0 -7.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 7.0 5.0 F F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.06 EP052024 240807 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.60 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.