Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  18.9  19.0  17.4  16.7  18.5  20.3  25.9  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.5  38.7  31.6  30.8  26.2  27.6  26.2  28.4  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -11.0  35.0  13.0   5.0  18.0   1.0  -3.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   1.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   7.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.72

 EP052024 240808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    119.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.