Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240808 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 16.4 16.2 17.4 20.5 17.5 24.8 21.8 N F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.7 46.8 40.8 40.8 36.9 37.6 37.6 36.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 29.0 4.0 16.0 7.0 -2.0 -2.0 5.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 56.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 47.0 46.0 N U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 3.0 7.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.42 EP052024 240808 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 121.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.