Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240808 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 16.6 16.4 15.2 16.4 19.7 26.8 24.4 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 51.8 45.8 45.0 45.0 42.6 41.2 42.6 42.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 23.0 17.0 22.0 2.0 43.0 -7.0 -3.0 N U U U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 54.0 51.0 51.0 48.0 46.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 6.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.98 EP052024 240808 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.10 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.