Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052024 240808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  17.4  16.9  19.6  16.4  23.9  24.3  29.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.8  45.8  45.0  41.2  42.6  41.2  43.4  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  21.0  37.0   3.0   6.0  17.0 -12.0  13.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   3.0   4.0  10.0   4.0  10.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.84

 EP052024 240808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.