Rapid Intensification Guidance EP052024 240809 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 17.4 19.4 18.4 17.5 24.2 24.3 26.5 F F N F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.8 50.0 46.2 46.9 45.4 47.6 49.2 51.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 38.0 5.0 14.0 14.0 5.0 0.0 20.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 50.0 47.0 45.0 40.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 4.0 7.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.48 EP052024 240809 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 124.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.