Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062024 240805 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.0 25.3 24.2 21.9 16.1 20.9 31.0 31.0 N N N N F N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 24.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 11.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 109.4 99.8 83.0 83.0 F F F N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 53.0 73.0 101.0 109.0 44.0 5.0 5.0 N N N F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 77.0 75.0 72.0 72.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -25.0 -28.0 -23.0 -9.0 -6.0 -1.0 -1.0 VF VF VF VF F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 25kt / 24h 6.1% 16.9% 11.5% 30kt / 24h 2.5% 6.5% 4.5% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 6.3% 3.6% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 6.3% 3.6% 45kt / 36h 5.8% 21.4% 13.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.2% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 7.1% 3.1% 5.1% 70kt / 48h 3.1% 8.2% 5.6% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 5.8% 3.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 EP062024 240805 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 106.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.0 25.3 24.2 21.9 16.1 20.9 31.0 31.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 80.0 82.0 77.0 75.0 72.0 72.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -25.0 -28.0 -23.0 -9.0 -6.0 -1.0 -1.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%