Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062024 240805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  30.6  20.0  16.6  10.4  27.6  27.6  27.6  N  U  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  12.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 127.0 117.9 113.6  94.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  85.0 108.0 111.0  66.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -34.0 -22.0 -10.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       17.0%       11.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        7.2%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        6.7%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       21.7%       12.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.2%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        2.0%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        6.0%        4.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        6.2%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 EP062024 240805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  30.6  20.0  16.6  10.4  27.6  27.6  27.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -34.0 -22.0 -10.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%