Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062024 240806 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 78.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 24.2 17.0 11.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 N N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 12.0 12.0 8.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 117.0 105.7 103.6 97.4 76.1 76.1 76.1 76.1 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 80.0 90.0 96.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 N N F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 76.0 73.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -31.0 -11.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 VF VF F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.4% 6.8% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 22.6% 40.0% 31.3% 30kt / 24h 10.7% 27.8% 19.3% 35kt / 24h 6.8% 27.8% 17.3% 40kt / 24h 5.8% 25.6% 15.7% 45kt / 36h 8.7% 38.7% 23.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 22.2% 11.1% 55kt / 48h 7.5% 3.3% 5.4% 70kt / 48h 3.3% 11.9% 7.6% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 9.3% 5.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 EP062024 240806 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 24.2 17.0 11.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 N N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 76.0 73.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -31.0 -11.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 VU VU U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%