Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062024 240806 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 18.3 15.8 14.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 14.0 10.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.6 98.6 94.4 88.5 71.1 71.1 71.1 71.1 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 100.0 73.0 40.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 F F N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 74.0 72.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 F F N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -21.0 -14.0 -16.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 VF VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.9% 12.6% 14.8% 25kt / 24h 32.2% 46.8% 39.5% 30kt / 24h 18.1% 35.3% 26.7% 35kt / 24h 14.4% 35.3% 24.8% 40kt / 24h 13.3% 33.5% 23.4% 45kt / 36h 13.4% 43.5% 28.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.1% 13.5% 55kt / 48h 7.9% 3.9% 5.9% 70kt / 48h 3.9% 13.9% 8.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 8.6% 4.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.82 EP062024 240806 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 110.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 18.3 15.8 14.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 N N U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 77.0 74.0 72.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 U U N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -21.0 -14.0 -16.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 VU VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.5% 0.0% 0.3%