Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062024 240806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  16.2  14.8  14.1  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.7  81.6  78.0  71.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  62.0  67.0  18.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0  F  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -30.0 -17.0 -15.0  -5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        8.1%        9.7%
 25kt / 24h       16.0%       26.5%       21.2%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       17.9%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       17.9%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       16.7%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       20.9%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.0%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 EP062024 240806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.