Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062024 240806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  19.0  14.7  17.5  21.2  21.2  21.2  21.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  71.1  66.5  50.5  44.8  44.8  44.8  44.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  40.0   6.0   6.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -23.0  -1.0   6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0 VF VF  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.18

 EP062024 240806 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    113.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.