Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP062024 240807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  16.9  18.7  19.8  20.1  20.1  20.1  20.1  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.6  55.5  47.7  47.7  41.8  41.8  41.8  41.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  27.0  10.0  -9.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0  -5.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.04

 EP062024 240807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.