Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062024 240807 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.7 16.1 14.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 F F F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.5 60.5 58.2 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 -19.0 -3.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 61.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.64 EP062024 240807 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.30 118.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.