Rapid Intensification Guidance EP062024 240807 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 119.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.70 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 F N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.4 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.48 EP062024 240807 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 119.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.