Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.9  27.0  24.9  21.7  32.4  30.4  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  26.0  17.0  13.0  29.0  21.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 118.6 108.5 104.8 101.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  46.0  48.0  68.0  94.0  76.0 111.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0 -18.0 -22.0 -18.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       13.1%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       16.0%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.6%        3.7%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.4%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        6.7%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 EP072024 240818 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  24.9  27.0  24.9  21.7  32.4  30.4  32.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  75.0  78.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0 -18.0 -22.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%