Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.4  29.2  26.6  31.8  35.7  28.6  28.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  15.0  12.0  21.0  22.0  22.0  18.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 129.3 127.0 124.6 117.9 105.5 101.6  99.8  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  45.0  56.0  69.0 117.0 112.0 106.0 113.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0 -17.0 -23.0 -25.0 -16.0  F  F  F  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.8%       19.2%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        7.2%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       21.2%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        4.3%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        8.5%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 EP072024 240818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    111.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  29.4  29.2  26.6  31.8  35.7  28.6  28.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0  -3.0 -17.0 -23.0 -25.0 -16.0  U  U  U  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%