Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  31.1  26.4  19.5  33.8  31.8  26.9  18.3  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  15.0  22.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  14.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 124.6 120.1 117.9 113.6 103.5 101.6  98.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  50.0  78.0 113.0 116.0  90.0  54.0  71.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0 -20.0 -28.0 -21.0  -9.0  F  F  N  N VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       12.1%        8.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        4.1%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        3.9%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       11.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        2.2%        2.4%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.3%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        6.0%        4.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP072024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    113.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.0  31.1  26.4  19.5  33.8  31.8  26.9  18.3  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  76.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0 -20.0 -28.0 -21.0  -9.0  U  U  N  N VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%