Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  28.9  23.2  29.5  36.8  30.1  22.5  17.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  22.0  22.0  19.0  21.0  16.0   7.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 114.6 107.9 105.7 103.6  91.6  79.3  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  95.0 115.0  93.0  83.0  56.0  29.0  51.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0 -14.0 -30.0 -26.0 -14.0 -15.0  F  F  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        3.6%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       12.0%       20.6%       16.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%        8.9%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        6.9%        8.9%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.9%        8.9%        7.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       13.5%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        0.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.6%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP072024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    114.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  28.9  23.2  29.5  36.8  30.1  22.5  17.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  79.0  76.0  72.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0 -14.0 -30.0 -26.0 -14.0 -15.0  U  U  N VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%