Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240819 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 115.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 24.5 27.7 34.9 28.8 18.9 22.0 20.9 N N N U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 21.0 20.0 23.0 31.0 12.0 6.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.1 107.9 105.7 103.6 91.6 81.0 79.3 68.6 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 90.0 69.0 62.0 105.0 72.0 77.0 68.0 F F N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -15.0 -20.0 -21.0 -6.0 -3.0 -3.0 F F VF VF VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 2.9% 3.8% 25kt / 24h 7.3% 13.5% 10.4% 30kt / 24h 3.6% 5.2% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 5.2% 3.8% 40kt / 24h 2.5% 5.2% 3.8% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 10.9% 6.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.1% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 1.4% 2.1% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 3.0% 2.2% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 4.4% 2.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 EP072024 240819 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 115.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 24.5 27.7 34.9 28.8 18.9 22.0 20.9 N N N F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 79.0 76.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -6.0 -15.0 -20.0 -21.0 -6.0 -3.0 -3.0 U U VU VU VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%