Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.7  28.7  27.3  23.6  22.1  20.2  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  22.0  26.0  25.0   8.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9 100.7  98.6  90.5  86.6  74.3  72.7  62.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  79.0  47.0 103.0  75.0  14.0  23.0  21.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -11.0 -12.0 -13.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -7.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        1.9%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        9.2%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        3.6%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        3.5%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        3.5%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        7.2%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP072024 240819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  28.7  28.7  27.3  23.6  22.1  20.2  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -11.0 -12.0 -13.0  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0  -7.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%