Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  29.9  26.3  22.9  21.7  14.7  15.1  15.9  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  22.0  25.0  27.0  13.0   7.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9 100.7  90.5  88.5  86.6  76.0  74.3  60.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  38.0  46.0  81.0  35.0  55.0  36.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.5%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        7.1%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        2.9%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.7%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.7%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        5.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP072024 240820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  29.9  26.3  22.9  21.7  14.7  15.1  15.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  74.0  74.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -3.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%