Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  27.6  23.7  23.4  16.1  11.8  15.5  15.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  26.0  30.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.7  95.5  93.5  91.6  82.7  79.3  68.6  65.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  78.0  91.0  49.0  34.0  64.0  19.0  12.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0   2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 EP072024 240820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    117.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.