Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240820 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.30 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 22.5 21.5 19.2 16.2 20.1 17.3 13.9 N N N N F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 28.0 15.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.5 86.6 86.6 84.8 74.3 72.7 60.8 60.8 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 12.0 6.0 19.0 32.0 49.0 33.0 28.0 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 77.0 73.0 75.0 75.0 73.0 67.0 F F F N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 1.4% 5.9% 3.6% 30kt / 24h 0.8% 2.5% 1.7% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 2.2% 1.4% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 7.2% 4.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.14 EP072024 240820 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 120.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.