Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.7  19.7  20.8  19.9  20.7  15.0  13.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  15.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   3.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.5  76.6  74.8  74.8  64.3  62.7  50.8  50.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0 -10.0  29.0   5.0  14.0  -8.0  21.0   1.0 VU  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  77.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.4%        6.7%       11.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       14.9%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%        8.8%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%        8.8%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.4%        8.7%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       14.1%        9.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        1.4%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.10

 EP072024 240821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.