Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240821 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 19.0 16.9 17.9 19.6 23.2 14.7 12.4 N N F F N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 7.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.6 69.8 69.8 69.8 57.7 56.1 56.1 45.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 4.0 -13.0 -15.0 11.0 18.0 0.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 73.0 75.0 74.0 74.0 70.0 66.0 62.0 F N F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.4% 10.5% 12.4% 25kt / 24h 13.1% 21.9% 17.5% 30kt / 24h 13.1% 18.1% 15.6% 35kt / 24h 13.1% 18.1% 15.6% 40kt / 24h 2.9% 16.2% 9.6% 45kt / 36h 3.9% 16.7% 10.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.8% 4.4% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.16 EP072024 240821 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 122.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.