Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240821 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 122.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.3 21.0 20.6 22.8 23.9 18.8 18.1 14.0 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.8 59.8 59.8 59.8 47.7 46.1 46.1 46.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 13.0 -14.0 -11.0 -17.0 -7.0 12.0 -4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 76.0 77.0 76.0 74.0 69.0 64.0 61.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 40.8% 16.6% 28.7% 25kt / 24h 19.9% 22.8% 21.3% 30kt / 24h 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 35kt / 24h 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 40kt / 24h 13.6% 18.7% 16.2% 45kt / 36h 5.4% 11.4% 8.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 EP072024 240821 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 122.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.