Rapid Intensification Guidance EP072024 240821 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 122.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 19.2 20.7 23.8 21.6 18.2 18.8 17.6 N N N N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.8 44.8 44.8 43.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 28.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 -19.0 -27.0 -3.0 10.0 -8.0 25.0 37.0 U U VU U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 70.0 67.0 62.0 56.0 N F F N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 37.1% 14.7% 25.9% 25kt / 24h 14.1% 14.8% 14.5% 30kt / 24h 14.1% 12.5% 13.3% 35kt / 24h 14.1% 12.5% 13.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 EP072024 240821 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 122.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.