Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.7  22.0  21.9  16.5  15.1  14.8  17.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.8  39.8  38.0  27.7  26.1  26.1  24.6  23.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -15.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  16.0  17.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.9%        7.6%       16.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%        6.2%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        3.7%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.84

 EP072024 240822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.