Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP072024 240822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  26.1  25.9  24.6  18.3  16.9  17.7  15.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.8  33.0  33.0  21.1  21.1  21.1  18.0  18.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   3.0  20.0  17.0 -20.0  29.0  40.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        2.1%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 EP072024 240822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    123.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.